Lets look at some facts. Nigel Farage was first elected as Leader of UKIP in 2006 with 45% of the vote. He took on a Party with some tremendous internal difficulties, but steady progress was made. Issues other than the EU were focused on for the first time, most prominently immigration and education. UKIP saw two peers defect giving it a Parliamentary foothold for the first time. Bob Spink MP also defected, though later bizarrely claimed not to have done so. The Party started to attract a number of young people attracted by Farage's media-savvy, modern delivery. Media profile increased for the Party, and many of those I know in the media say that it was Farage who made them think UKIP were no longer just swivel-eyed obsessives. In fact many in the media world have said to me that they are amazed he puts up with UKIP's brand of internal in-fighting rather going to play in the "big leagues" of the Tory Party.
But Farage plugged away, dealing with troublesome internal infiltrators who tried to put a deal with the BNP on the table while attracting the support of the extremely prominent former Tory grandee Stuart Wheeler. Wheeler's money played a part in delivering Farage's greatest success, as he led UKIP, a supposed fringe Party, to second in a national election in the 2009 European Elections.
The media didn't see it coming. Beating the Labour, the Party had defied all expectations. And with the General Election forthcoming, Farage took the decision to stand down from the leadership and fight John Bercow in Buckingham, desperate to take the UKIP message into the House of Commons.
It didn't work. But that was the last of Nigel's worries on polling day, as he came very close to being killed in what must have been an absolutely terrifying plane crash. Unfortunately for the political class, this event appeared to only strengthen the resolve of UKIP's former Leader who threw his hat into the ring to become Leader of UKIP once again.
Instead of getting 45% of the vote as in 2006, 60% of the UKIP membership now backed Nigel Farage. I was one of them. Farage had a mandate virtually unprecedented for any contested Party Leader standing in a four horse race. He had become more favoured by the Party membership than ever before no matter what anyone said.
What seems to have been missed by people within UKIP - and in the wider sphere - is that under Farage the Party has not simply focused on European Electons. The jaw-droppingly good performance in the Barnsley by-election saw UKIP give both Coalition parties an electoral drubbing that saw UKIP come second in a by-election for the first time. This did not occur by accident.
The recent election results were disappointing - but in many ways misleadingly so. While the Party should have secured seats in the Welsh Assembly, it failed to do so. The Party did increase its vote by 14% on 2007 however, moving forward nonetheless. It would be absurd to blame this failure of a breakthrough purely on Farage's shoulders though: the Scottish Leaders of the LibDems, Labour and Conseratives have all themselves been held accountable and felt the axe due to their parties poor performance in devolved elections, not Miliband or Cameron.
Local election results for the Party were also encouraging. Actually, they were downright marvellous: the Party stood 26% more candidates than 2007 but saw a vote increase of a whooping 55%, as over 320,000 people voted UKIP in their English local elections compared to 208,000 just 4 years ago. That is taking into consideration the fact that only one-eighth of seats were up for grabs.
Yet Marta Andreasen was allowed to put her own spin on the results, claiming a lack of actual wins equated to a failure. This is simply not true and represents a potentially dangerous new path for UKIP, with the Party's old tradition of in-fighting come back to haunt it.
Nigel Farage is a hugely popular Party Leader both with the Party membership and the public. His work ethic is second to none and nor is his ability to communicate and build credibility with the public. He is just six months into a second leadership stint that allowed to flourish, with the backing of all members of the Party, could see significant gains at local election level made, as well as in the London Assembly and the European Parliament where a first place finish is not out of the question.
UKIP has a very clear path ahead of it: constructive activity behind a Leader who has the grassroots firmly on his side. Or it can resort to the old UKIP in-fighting that does nothing but deepen splits and hold up electoral progress. Those who are continually seeking to undermine the democratically elected Party Leader represent nobody but themselves. And if they seriously want UKIP to continue to develop for the next few years, getting behind Nigel Farage is the only option.
4 comments:
I disagree with little of which you write Michael.
On matters Ukip on which I blog hopefully it can be seen that I am not anti-Farage 'per se', however surely even you would agree that there is much to do if we are to become a party that the electorate will support. I believe Nigel himself would agree that administration is not his forte yet it appears nothing is being done to rectify that.
I still maintain that our presentation leaves much to be desired and our website is a joke, yet when attempting to talk to those higher up, very very few will even discuss the subjects. Another area that is definitely in need of some help is local activism and planning for elections.
On the question of what we are doing wrong as a party is not helped by the apparent 'head in the sand' attitude - one that is all I appear to see.
I certainly agree that we have a long way to go - but these things take time. I have voiced my opinion of what needs to change with the leadership and bit by bit, things are improving.
My point is that no one will get us there quicker than Nigel and his team including talent like Executive Chairman Steve Crowther.
The more the membership unites behind the leadership, the better UKIP will become.
I think the problem for Nigel isn't actually one over which Nigel has any control.
We all know how much the British people hate the 'ever increasing union' project that seeks to destroy our nation, our liberties and our democracy.
We all trawl the same newspaper websites and see the huge number of comments from readers who share the UKIP position on matters not just limited to the EU but across a number of issues.
Many of the latter vow, publicly, to vote UKIP - and that brings with it an expectation of a breakthrough.
No matter the statistics produced, those local election results didn't create the breakthrogh many had expected to become manifest.
And that is the problem for Nigel - expectation.
Now, you could argue that expectation has to be managed - but Nigel himself did increase that expectation by telling the BBC that he expected to see a couple of dozen gains and a seat or two in Wales - neither of which happened.
There is then the frustration factor that Nigel cannot manage, Marta cannot manage, and no blogger can manage.
The EU treachery project has been going on for forty years and people want something done about it NOW.
Not in dozens of years time as UKIP grows, one councillor at a time.
My suggestion? UKIP organises a huge anti-EU march through London. It will be supported, massively.
And the people demand it.
This is the problem - the people are roughly 35 years ahead of where UKIP is at the ballot box and, unless UKIP can catch up that time lag with results that can be seen by man-on-the-street (which is not a time lag of it's own creation), then people will feel that they are left on their own with their frustrations and will say negative things about UKIP as a result.
It also doesn't help that we (as in the public) know what UKIP opposes - the EU - but do not know what it is *for*.
Nigel Farage has great potential to lead not only UKIP but also the country.
It's working out how to straddle the gap between where UKIP are and where the people who should be voting for UKIP are that is the issue.
And, may I suggest, many of those people who would support UKIP do not believe that politicians of any hue or even the ballot box will deliver what they want anymore.
As I say, not UKIP's doing, not Nigel's doing... but UKIP's voters - I suggest - are the people who are so disillusioned with politicians that they are now more likely to stay at home while reading about lawful rebellion and Magna Carta on the internet...
You would think Marta Andreasen's move is planned and that it's got backing. And yet, she is completely alone on this - no support at all. As a political move, this makes no sense at all. She has just signed off her politcal career.
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