Wednesday, 31 March 2010

So I take it Frank Field and Nicholas Soames want us to leave the EU?

After all Field, a Labour MP and Soames, a Tory MP, are today to publish a letter to the Party Leaders calling for immigration to be more heavily restricted until unemployment has more than halved. Economic migrants should also have to undergo an English language test, in their opinion.

All sensible stuff. Problem is, we are in the European Union. That means we have open-borders with 26 other EU member states. The result is that the best we can hope for is the current system whereby those from outside the EU face restrictions to entering the country, while those inside the EU are free to come and go. It is a system of discrimination and a national disgrace.

What is even worse though is that I'm sure in Gordon Brown's speech today and in fact whenever the old Party Leaders debate the issue, they talk about immigration controls then reluctantly mutter the term "from outside the EU". The fact is that to a great degree, our borders have been handed over to Brussels. We are a part of the EU's grand project and the free movement of peoples is a fundamental part of this.

So, if Nicholas Soames and Frank Field want to address the issue properly, I take it they will be dealing with this unfortunate yet incredibly important EU angle. I take it they will highlight the damage that uncontrolled mass immigration has had. And I take it they will denounce our EU membership as destructive and needless.

On second thoughts, I won't hold my breath.

Tuesday, 30 March 2010

What happens if the Conservatives lose?

With the likes of Douglas Murray and Norman Tebbit mulling over the possibility of the David Cameron project failing and not taking the Tories back into government, the question really must be asked: what happens if the Conservatives lose at the General Election?

Just a few short months ago I was of the opinion that David Cameron was almost certain to become the next Prime Minister. I guess that exposed my lack of years. Because the prospect of Cameron becoming PM is a very uncertain one.

The Tories have been wavering in the polls and unlike many, I think Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats would much, much rather prefer to work with Labour in a coalition government than with Cameron. Both parties are more obviously centre-left and the LibDems would need to be part of a government that achieved things rather than squabble and horse trade, as it would be their greatest ever chance. There is also the small matter of Labour being much more receptive on the issue of Proportional Representation than the Tories.

If such a situation did occur, it would surely be time for the dozens of disgruntled backbenchers to step in.They have shut up to give Cameron the best possible opportunity to get the Conservatives back into government, but if he fails then I predict a parliamentary riot. The EU, environment, taxation and education are all issues that represent ticking time bombs in the Tory Party. If Cameron wins the election he may demonstrate to those inclined to oppose his policies that he is a man worth putting up with.

If however he fails to thrash a disastrous, loathed Prime Minister in Gordon Brown then Cameron will have lost the General Election because of his "centre ground" shift. It will prove comprehensively that as bad as one choice may be, it is simply not enough in politics to stand talking pretty with sound bites that have very ideological coherence little behind them. And it will be a crushing result for a Conservative Party which I'm sure would clash internally on its way forward like never before, after clutching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Monday, 29 March 2010

Fragmentation is useless.

I have often spoken of my admiration for men like Stuart Wheeler who stand by their principles. When he donated to and supported UKIP's European Election campaign, he knew there was a chance he could be kicked out of the Conservative Party he had donated £5 million to in 2001. And he was.

Yet the news that he has today launched his own political party, the Trust Party, for whom he will stand for at the General Election is deeply disappointing to me. The Party's sole interest is in standing against two or three of the worst expenses fiddlers, with Wheeler pledging to not claim any expenses if he is elected.

But the fact is he won't be. Not even close. Not simply because single-issue forces in first-past-the-post elections get absolutely nowhere near winning a seat, like the Referendum Party which was bankrolled by a man with a wealth far greater than even Stuart Wheeler's, but because building a foundation in politics takes years and years.

Just look at the various breakaway groups in British politics. Short-sightedness has seen the likes of Kilroy's Veritas and the Pro-Euro Conservative Party die very lonely deaths.

You may argue that UKIP has been far from impressive in its General Election performances but the fact is, we are now winning Council seats up and down the country and I expect a couple dozen of second and third place finishes. Nigel Farage may not be the only UKIP MP in the House of Commons after the General Election.

While Stuart Wheeler is a very honourable man who is once again putting his reputation and his money on the line to do what I'm sure he believes is absolutely the right thing to do, realistically change in Britain is only going to come via the political party system. While UKIP is far from perfect, it is the single credible force that has any chance of taking on the three established parties across the UK. Whether you love or loath UKIP, that is simply a fact.

It is for this reason that I find it to be a great shame that the likes of Stuart Wheeler and Paul Judge fragment a movement that has the potential to be mass. People want straight talking on the EU, the environment, on expenses and everything else and such respected figures are right to demand change in our country. But UKIP have already been arguing that case for years and the only way we will grow to be strong enough is if such reformists and democrats throw their lot in with us.

United we stand, divided we fall.

Tuesday, 23 March 2010

Who are the MPs Lord Pearson wants UKIP to stand aside for?

One of the most interesting aspects of Lord Pearson's UKIP Conference speech was his re-assertion that UKIP should stand aside at the next General Election for hardline eurosceptics. He cited perhaps seven or eight examples of where we may stand down.

This is an interesting one. The only MPs UKIP would be likely to contest who are standing for re-election in May and who have signed Better Off Out are Douglas Carswell, Phillip Davies and Phillip Hollobone from the Conservatives, Labour's Austin Mitchell and former UKIP MP and now Independent Bob Spink. The only others to have signed BOO are the retiring Wintertons' and DUP MPs who would be highly unlikely to face a UKIP challenge in Northern Ireland anyway.

Pearson was clear: it wouldn't be enough simply for an MP to be anti-EU, Pearson himself would have to be convinced they would defy the whip and ask difficult questions.

Well I can see who five are. Who are the rest?

EDIT: Even more confusingly, it has been reported only days ago that a former Deputy Chairman of the Tories is standing for UKIP in Grimsby against Austin Mitchell.

The establishment are running scared.

Try as she might, Tanya Gold's piss-take of UKIP really smells of something very desperate.

The truth is that once upon a time, perhaps her caricature of UKIP as a single-issue, anti-Europe, slightly (okay very) eccentric Party may have been accurate. Yet UKIP in 2010 is none of these things.

The Conference was home to a huge amount of younger members and members of different colours and backgrounds too. I will admit that even as a fully-fledged "New UKIP" moderniser and as head of the Party's youth wing, even I am surprised just how quickly UKIP is evolving as a political Party. But that is the natural product of a Party putting forth radical ideas on every policy area, something I very much welcome.

Tanya Gold may try and paint UKIP out to be something, and okay perhaps we are a bit maverick in our look and behaviour. But try as she and the newspapers might, I'm pretty certain that what the public want is something new. Those who look deeper - and analyse our manifesto for instance - will find a Party that is ready to become a major force in British politics.

Monday, 22 March 2010

Even Daniel Hannan simply doesn't seem to get it.

Daniel Hannan is a favourite of many UKIP activists for his sublime, perfectly delivered anti-EU speeches. I have always been of the opinion, though, that actions speech louder than words. And so they have.

In my opinion, Hannan is in fact one of the last bastions for many Conservative voters who use true eurosceptics like him along with the likes of Roger Helmer and Douglas Carswell as justification for sticking with the Party, despite Team Cameron have the square root of bugger all in common with such figures.

If they left and joined a Party far closer to their own principles in UKIP, so too would a large section of Tory grassroot support. Of that I am certain.

So it is to the great detriment of UKIP that Daniel Hannan is busy advising voters not to vote for an anti-EU Party, but to vote for his own pro-EU Party because it is somehow better than the Labour and Liberal Democrats. Well, better perhaps if you like some tougher talk. But when it comes to getting a referendum or having any say whatsoever on the EU issue, a Conservative government means nothing and is no better than Labour.

Also, lets please not forget that while David Cameron brought euro-enthusiast Ken Clarke back onto front bench duty, he has barred any anti-EU Tory MP from ever doing so. That speaks volumes.

Finally, and most worryingly I am sure for Hannan and his colleagues, is that as UKIP's Spring Conference illustrated, we are no longer a Party "straight talking" simply on the EU. We now solidly stand for grammar schools, a sceptical stance on man-made global warming and flat tax, I could go on. Of course, for those who support such policies and principles there is no point voting Conservative. They stand for none of these.

Saturday, 20 March 2010

UKIP has momentum right now.

I am amazed to see the amount of coverage that the UKIP Conference I have just returned from in Milton Keynes is receiving. From the newspapers to the news channels, the message that UKIP is intending to mount a serious General Election campaign is becoming loud and clear.

My speech I felt at Conference went well, but the highlights were of course Nigel Farage and Lord Pearson, as well as Deputy Leader David Campbell Bannerman's outlining of our domestic policy. There was very little in the dozen or so topic areas covered that I disagreed with. What struck me more is that ex-coppers in the crowd cheered the law and order paper, the fishermen in UKIP's ranks were enthusiastic about UKIP's policy on fishing and those who were ex-teachers loved what they saw of the education policy.

That suggests to me that far from being fringe, UKIP is the voice of those ordinary people turned off by the Brown/Cameron show who we badly need to get back involved in politics.

Thursday, 18 March 2010

MK bound.

Tomorrow will see UKIP's Spring Conference take place, as the Party sets out its General Election campaign proper in would could be the most important UKIP Conference in history.

With the Tories flapping in the polls, a hung Parliament could be on the cards. And what a delicious prospect that is for Nigel Farage, who could dethrone the Speaker John Bercow in Buckingham in what would be an incredible result.

The prospect of Nigel as a UKIP MP in Westminster with a weak Tory government in place is scary enough for those who fear the growth of UKIP. I suspect there will be many MPs who after election night are terrified about the rise of UKIP in their constituencies too. I am hopeful that an array of "UKIP marginals" will be created at this election, with second and third place finishes all over the country.

But that is only possible if the Party sheds its single-issue image and talks about things that really matter to people. The pound in their pocket, crime, education, healthcare and such things all see the Tories and Labour largely converge on the mythical safe haven of the "centre ground" where offence is never caused but where votes are harder to win as ideological determination is abandoned.

I will be mentioning grammar schools at Conference and talking about why in places like Buckingham they are so popular, as well as why I think 85% of 18 - 25 year old's in a recent YouGov poll backed bringing in more grammar schools despite coming from a generation where in many towns and cities they no longer exist. So I'll be doing my bit to demonstrate what a huge gaping chasm UKIP has to fill in domestic politics.

My hope is that this Conference is going to be used by the leadership to re-iterate the same point. That UKIP is a Party evolving from a fringe single-issue group to a fully fledged, credible, mainstream political Party.