Judging from most opinion polls, the omens are not looking good. It does appear that the Irish people, second time round, may vote "yes" in a referendum to the EU's hated Lisbon Treaty. The EU Constitution in all but name, the EU's latest and final document that is self-ratifying in the future meaning that there will never again be a referendum when it comes to the extent of supranational power wielded by the European Union looks to soon become a reality.
It should not be. The French and Dutch voted no to the Constitution. The Irish, the only people who got a referendum on Lisbon, voted no first time round. But they have been made to vote again and this time the no side have been financially outflanked by ten-to-one, the media have thrown the rulebook out of the window in terms of balanced coverage and hundreds of politicians have warned that a no vote will lead to further economic turmoil in a country that is already suffering.
Yet it would be foolish to write the result off entirely. After all, few predicted a no vote last time round. And if there is one thing the Irish people hate, it is being pushed and bullied around.
One thing is for certain. Those sad eurosceptics who simply do not realise where David Cameron wants to take the Conservative party, are putting their faith in the wrong man. If the Irish do vote yes second time round, do not expect a Lisbon referendum. William Hague has already said that there will be no announcement at the October Tory Conference which occurs days after the referendum result. There is no impetus there, no loyalty to what is right but simply what political capital can be gained from this whole sorry episode.
I could be wrong but I have a distinct feeling that those putting faith in David Cameron to deliver the referendum us British clearly want, are going to be sorely disappointed. British eurosceptics need to hope and pray the Irish vote no a second time and kill this hated power-grab from the EU political elite once and for all. Anything less would mean leaving it to chance. And I don't like the odds.